Great British Railways Handed a 40% Rail Freight Target for 2040 as UK Volumes Hit a Two-Decade Low

The coverage reads this as a green transport story. I read it as a capacity story with no capital attached. The target sets growth on a base that has been falling for a decade.

What 40% means in tonne kilometres

On 8 September 2026 the Department for Transport set Great British Railways a target to increase rail freight by at least 40% by 2040. The government calls it the first milestone toward at least 75% growth by 2050. Office of Rail and Road figures for the 12 months to the end of March 2026 put freight moved at 16.06 billion net tonne kilometres, down 3% on the year.

Apply the target to that base and the answer is about 22.5 billion net tonne kilometres by 2040. ORR data puts the peak a decade ago at roughly 22.7 billion. The 2040 target is therefore a recovery to where the network already was, stretched over fourteen years. The 2050 ambition would take the figure near 28 billion, higher than anything Britain has moved since privatisation.

The train count says the same thing more bluntly. ORR recorded 186,131 freight trains in the year to March 2026, the lowest since at least 2003-04. That year the network ran more than 400,000. Net tonnes fell 5% to 69.5 million and train kilometres fell 7%.

The construction number is the one to test

Network Rail estimates the new target could lift rail movements of construction materials by 45%. That is the figure this readership should check first. ORR recorded construction traffic falling 7% to 5.08 billion net tonne kilometres in the year to March 2026.

ORR gave two reasons. Urban high-rise development was subdued, partly because of delays in processing building applications under the new tall buildings regulations, which hit concrete movements. The reset of the HS2 programme paused transfers of material to its construction sites. Both causes sit outside the railway.

A 45% uplift on 5.08 billion means roughly 7.4 billion net tonne kilometres of aggregates, cement and concrete. The government puts a single freight train at enough material to build around 30 homes. The volume therefore turns on planning consents and on one megaproject's schedule.

The bill gives duties. The settlement gives money.

The Railways Bill began its committee stage in the House of Lords on the same day. It gives Great British Railways strategic oversight of network access and two duties to support freight growth. A dedicated board member will carry responsibility for freight.

These are governance instruments. Access rights and a board seat do not lengthen loops, clear gauge or build terminals. ORR accepted Network Rail's GBP 43.1bn plan for Control Period 7, which runs from April 2024 to March 2029. The 2040 target sits across CP8, CP9 and part of CP10. No new capital settlement came with the announcement. For any project director the practical question is which control period pays for the enabling works.

The supply side is repricing at the same time

Three weeks before the target, on 17 August 2026, Deutsche Bahn began the process of selling DB Cargo UK as it refocuses on central Europe. DB Cargo UK holds a little over 22% of British freight train kilometres. A parent exiting the number two operator is a statement about returns.

The rest of the market is consolidating around GB Railfreight, which lifted its share of train kilometres from 30.3% to 31.4%. Freightliner Intermodal holds a little over 22%, Heavy Haul Rail 12.6% and Direct Rail Services 8.2%. The commodity mix is rotating underneath. Intermodal maritime held flat at 6.39 billion net tonne kilometres. Intermodal non-maritime grew 10%, industrial minerals 3% and metals 2%. Coal fell 27%, petroleum 33% and international traffic 19%.

Where the risk lands

Rail freight already carries goods worth almost GBP 34 billion a year, and the government says the target would add about GBP 15 billion. Private capital creates most of that value. Terminal owners, wagon lessors, port operators and shippers fund the assets. The state supplies paths, gauge and loops.

Sponsors and investors should sequence accordingly. Paths first, then gauge clearance and loop lengthening, then terminals, then wagons. Anyone committing terminal capex before a path guarantee is taking network risk on a public timetable. Three things are worth watching: the CP8 funding settlement, whether the new access duties produce firm long-term freight paths, and who buys DB Cargo UK. A target is a signal. A funded path is an asset.